Point / Counterpoint: Ken Rosenthal's NLCS Preview

This is our column where we wrangle every nonsensical statement a writer proclaims in their commentary. Next up is Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, taken from the article titled "NLCS preview: Phillies starting to look like '08 team"

Before the postseason began, I wrote, "If the Phillies were the Phillies of May or even July, I would pick them not only to beat the Rockies, but also to win their second straight World Series."


I then picked the Rockies in five games, contending that the Phillies had too many issues — questionable starting pitching, a bullpen in disarray, an offense that had lost some of its edge.

So you got that series incredibly wrong, why should we trust you now?

Those issues remain, to varying degrees, but I'm again sold. The Phillies started to regain their mojo in their four-game triumph over the Rockies, and I don't see them turning back.

Four games changed your mind about the Phillies? I'm guessing you're the type of guy who decided to marry your wife the moment you met her. Then after realizing she laughs too much, you called the wedding off, only to notice that she was only laughing to make you feel better about your unappreciated dick jokes at her family reunion.

The Phillies need more out of Cole Hamels, more out of Jimmy Rollins, continued improvement out of Brad Lidge. But if they play at close to their peak, the Dodgers cannot stop them.

Agreed. If Hamels, Rollins and Lidge play at the peak of their games they will be unstoppable. But why would anyone expect that now? Rollins is coming off one of the worsts seasons of his career and Lidge was terribly inconsistent, not to mention both stunk it up against the Dodgers in 2009. (Rollins hit under .200 against them and Lidge allowed eight hits and had a 7.36 ERA in 3 2/3 innings.)

The Dodgers will be formidable in the NLCS, more formidable than they were a year ago when they started five straight right-handers against a team that featured two left-handed sluggers — Chase Utley and Ryan Howard — and has since added a third, Raul Ibanez.

This time, the Dodgers are in better position to neutralize the Phillies' left-handed power. Lefties Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw likely will start four of the first six games, if necessary. The Dodgers' bullpen also features two quality left-handers, Hong-Chi Kuo and George Sherrill.
Why, then, do I like the Phillies?

No idea.

1. Cliff Lee:
The Dodgers wanted him before the July 31 non-waiver deadline.
Instead, the Phillies got him. Lee will not be available until Game 3, but he is again on a roll, posting a 1.10 ERA in his two starts in the Division Series. Kershaw, the only Dodgers starter comparable to Lee, is not as mature a pitcher at age 21 and does not pitch as deep into games.

We could judge the two off of their age and how well Lee has pitched in his last two starts. Or we could judge it off an entire season. A season that saw Kershaw throw for a lower ERA, strike out more batters, and give up fewer home runs than Lee. But that would make too much sense.

Hamels, inconsistent all season, is difficult to trust in Game 1, but I would take Phillies right-hander Joe Blanton and lefty J.A. Happ over every Dodgers starter but Kershaw. Righty Hiroki Kuroda, recovering from a herniated disk in his neck, is a physical question.

Team ERA's: Phillies 4.16, Dodgers 3.41
Team WHIP: Phillies 1.35 Dodgers 1.25
Team Opponents BA: Phillies .265 Dodgers .233
Team K/9: Phillies 7.13 Dodgers 7.77
Team H/9: Phillies 9.14 Dodgers 7.73

Righty Vicente Padilla, who dominated the dazed Cardinals in Game 3 of the Division Series, might get too wound up trying to defeat his former team.

Let's just ignore the fact that in his first 8 games as a Dodger Padilla allowed only 14 runs and pitched to a 3.20 ERA, and focus on the fact that he might possibly play bad against his old team. A team he hasn't played with since 2005.


Let's face it, the Dodgers overcame the Cardinals' rotation edge in large part because left fielder Matt Holliday dropped a flyball. The Dodgers are less likely to derive such benefit from a random occurrence in a best-of-7 series.

After the error by Holliday, do you know how many more batters the Dodgers needed to win the game? FOUR! If Casey Blake or Ronnie Belliard fail to get on base, the Cardinals win. If either Russell Martin or Mark Loretta fail to get on base, they go to extra innings. With all of those possible outs, how can the series loss for the Cardinals be pinned on the guy?

2. The Phillies' offensive awakening: The Phillies were flat offensively going into the postseason, and in some ways, they still are.

If they still are flat, how is that an awakening? Wouldn't that be more like a hangover?

Rollins, their leadoff man, had two huge ninth-inning hits against the Rockies but went just 5-for-19 with no walks overall.

He had two clutch hits and only managed to hit .263 as a lead-off hitter. You do realize, that you don't have to mention everyone right?

Not to worry:
Virtually every other Phillies hitter — Utley, Howard, Ibanez, Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino — got hot in the Division Series. Intangibles often are overrated, but at this point, can anyone doubt the Phillies' toughness or their ability to seize the moment?

And I thought you were going to use actual information that would help prove your point; like who had the better team batting average or the higher on-base percentage. But, yeah, toughness is always a key factor in who wins the series.

3. The Phillies' mix-and-match bullpen
A thing of beauty, it isn't. But Lidge's struggles, in a sense, have liberated manager Charlie Manuel. Rather than rely on an unreliable Lidge as his sole closer, Manuel will continue playing matchups, using lefty Scott Eyre, righty Ryan Madson and heaven knows who else in the late innings.

Good for Charlie. It was nice that Lidge was so inconsistent that it forced allowed him to play around with his bullpen lineup. He switched it up so much, it's back to being the same exact lineup.

OK, now for my final qualifier:....... It's baseball. It's October. Who the heck knows how a series might turn out between such evenly matched clubs? I'm going with my instincts.

Ken, let me remind you that last year, your instincts led you to pick both the Dodgers and Rays over the Phillies.


Phillies in 7.

Okay, let me get this straight. At the end of the season, the Phillies looked bad and the Rockies were rolling, so you picked Colorado. Now that the Phillies are playing well, you're picking them. Even though all of the things that made you worry about the Phillies are more than likely to come up in a seven game series. Lidge struggled all season, but he played awesome on Monday night, so he must be back. Rollins stunk all season and most of the series, but came up huge late in the game, so he too, must be back. These factors along with Cliff Lee, the offensive awakening, and the bullpen led you to pick the Phillies. All the while, dismissing the fact that the Dodgers have led the NL the entire season, won the season series between the two clubs, have home-field advantage, have more rest, have the lower ERA, have the higher batting average, have the higher OBP, and the better bullpen.Yeah that seems about right.