2011-2012 ACC Basketball Preview Part 2

NC State:
The Wolfpack finally made a coaching change after dropping the red coat jester Sidney Lowe after five disappointing seasons where he never finished better than 6-10 in the ACC. This was after firing Herb Sendek, who took State to five straight NCAA tournament appearances in his last five years as head coach. Hired was Mark Gottfried, who was not the home run hire that delusional Wolfpack fans thought they could get, but nonetheless he has a strong resume and is an immediate upgrade over Lowe. State is returning some talent with backcourt players Lorenzo Brown and Scott Wood who can fill up the basket on any given night. The best frontcourt player is sophomore C.J. Leslie, who showed flashes as a highly recruited freshman of his ability to score but was inconsistent with effort and was suspended for violating team rules at the end of the season. They don’t have a lack of size with Leslie and three juniors in Deshawn Painter, Richard Howell, and Jordan Vandenburg, but none of them have proven consistent production and they will need someone to make a jump to replace the loss of Tracy Smith. They will be formidable on days that Wood is hot and against teams with weaker inside play, but the lack of a true point guard with Ryan Harrow transferring and the lack of any consistent three point threats beyond Wood will hold this team back.
Record: 8-8 

Miami:
It looked to have the potential of being a promising season during the summer where a Top 3 finish in the ACC was in the cards, but injuries and off-the-court trouble have lowered expectations for the Hurricanes this season. Miami had four starters returning from a team that underachieved last season under Frank Haith. This includes talented and experienced guards Malcolm Grant and Durand Scott along with an All-ACC center in Reggie Johnson. Add in the addition of new head coach Jim Larranaga, which was an immediate upgrade over Haith, and this season could have been the most successful in the history of Miami basketball. But Johnson suffered a knee injury in a pickup game that required surgery and will keep him out of action until at least December. Shortly thereafter, another key post player Julian Gamble tore his ACL and was lost for the season. Adding to the frustration of the injuries is senior forward DeQuan Jones is sitting out the season as an alleged participant in the Nevin Shapiro scandal. The Canes will still have their excellent backcourt, but they will have to overcome losing their entire frontcourt in order to challenge for a winning ACC record. If Johnson can return to form by March, though will be a dangerous team come ACC tournament time. But will they do enough prior to warrant a tourney bid?
ACC record: 9-7

Florida State:
Quick trivia; Who is the second-longest tenured coach in the ACC? That’s right. It’s Leonard Hamilton. Since taking over in 2002, Hamilton has done a great job taking over a program that was perennial doormat of the ACC, never finishing higher than 7th in the ACC from the Sam Cassell years, through the Steve Robinson tenure, to when Hamilton took over. It took a few years to get things turned around, but Hamilton has lead FSU to three straight NCAA tourney appearances and has more wins in the ACC behind Duke and UNC in the past 5 years than any other school. His focus has been defense, which won’t be any different this season. He recruits tall, athletic players who can defend the rim and rebound in the paint and stay in front of perimeter players outside, and he has an army of those this season. I counted 7 players on the roster who are 6’7’ and taller, and their three best guards are 6’5’. Defensively Florida State is a top 5 team, but the offense is far away from it. They go into the season without an established go-to guy as there isn’t a single player returning who averaged double figures last season. The key to FSU's season and to the next stop up the ACC ladder is to be more efficient and effective on offense.

Virginia:
Surprise pick of the year. I decided to move them above Florida State after their win over Michigan, the only change I have made since the season started. Tony Bennett posted a winning record and a seventh place finish last season in the ACC with most experts picking them to finish in the basement, even without star forward Mike Scott for most of the season because of a broken ankle. Scott brings production on offense and defense and he played very well against Michigan, which proved he is back fully from injury and will a force all season. Assane Sene will be a force in the paint and shot 52 percent from the field. Joe Harris was a surprise at guard last season and if he continues his growth will be 14 point a game player. Two other veteran guards in Sammy Zeglinski and Jontel Evans will split time at the point. Zeglinski is the better shooter, Evans the better penetrator and passer. Freshman guard Malcolm Brogdon has played well in the first few weeks. If they can picked up where they left off with the addition of Scott, they will be a great team, but a step below the top 2.
ACC record: 10-6

Duke:
The Ohio State game withstanding, I have liked what I have seen so far. Replacing 3 star players in Singler, Smith, and Irving is a tough chore for anybody, but Duke has come out of the gates stronger than I expected. I’ve liked the maturity and improvement I’ve seen from Mason Plumlee. He will be a legit low post threat this season and will only get better as the season goes as gets more accustomed to being a primary scoring option. He went toe-to-toe with probably the best low post player in the NCAA in Thomas Robinson in the Maui final against Kansas and put up 17 and 12 with the offense funneling through him down the stretch. I thought he played well against Jared Sullinger on Tuesday, just the rest of team besides Austin Rivers didn’t show up to compete. Rivers will be maddening at times this season as his tries to create offense on the dribble drive, but if the Ohio State game is a indication of what’s to come, Rivers could become the best guard in the ACC this year. His crossover is the quickest in the country and he can finish with both hands at the rim. Seth Curry has stepped up his scoring and is an assassin from behind the arc, but ultimately I think he will need to be moved off the ball as he just isn’t a point guard and he’s not Jon Scheyer who made the transition. Ryan Kelly looks much improved and will need to be a consistent scorer on offense and grab rebounds and defend effectively in the paint for this team to do things. Andrew Dawkins looks to be purely a 3 point specialist, which is somewhat disappointing in his junior year, but I can live with him in that role if he steps up his defense and keeps his head in the game on a night he’s struggling to score.

 As I see it, Duke will need one of their two freshman wingmen in Michael Gbinije or Alex Murphy to mature during the season and get some minutes at the 3 to help guard on the outside as the defense on the perimeter is mediocre at best through the first 8 games. Ultimately I believe K will need to employ his slow, containment, half court style for this team to be successful in March as I don’t know if the perimeter defense will be good enough to win in his more traditional, in your face, pressure the ball defense he prefers. With the ACC being so down this year, I expect K to spend time during the year changing styles and mixing up lineups until he can put together the jigsaw puzzle that is this team. I’m optimistic of the final result.
ACC record: 12-4

UNC:
Based on the covers of all the major sports publications, the college basketball National Championship is once again Carolina’s to lose. UNC welcomes back all five starters from an Elite Eight team that finished last year inside the Top 10. Their primary strength is in the frontcourt with Harrison Barnes, John Henson, and Tyler Zeller all future NBA players. John Henson was the ACC Defensive Player of the Year, and he is as good defensively as any player in the country. Barnes played much better in the second half of the season after struggling through unreasonably high expectations in the beginning half and led UNC further than any team in the conference. Watching Barnes he is so much more efficient when he catches and shoots within a couple of dribbles. When he is pounding the ball into the ground and forcing his way into the paint is when he gets in trouble. Kendall Marshall took over the point guard slot midway through the season and became the catalyst for the turnaround in last year’s team. Because of his court vision and his ability to penetrate and find the open man with a pass, he makes everyone around him better. But his defense and perimeter shooting will need to show improvement to take the team to the next step. If UNC can improve their three point shooting with Reggie Bullock and PJ Hairston, and Kendall Marshall can improve his game and more importantly stay healthy, they will be tough to beat. The Heels aren’t a lock for anything, and I think Ohio State and Kentucky are more talented, but anything less than a ACC regular-season championship and a Final Four appearance would be a major disappointment.
ACC record: 13-3

2011-2012 ACC Basketball Preview; Part 1

The college basketball season is about 3 weeks underway and I know previews happen before the season, but ACC games don’t start until January, so I feel fine posting this while the season has already started. No secret to anyone, the ACC will be down this year, as Duke and North Carolina are head and shoulders above anyone in the conference. There are four new coaches entering the league this year along with three other coaches starting their second year, so 7 of 12 teams have coaches on the job for just l8 months.  Only half of the combined starters return from 11 ACC teams excluding UNC.  The ACC only received four bids to the NCAA tournament last year, and will be hard pressed to increase that number this year. But I still love ACC basketball and the fight for 3-12  in the conference will be an interesting fight. Below are my ACC predictions starting from worst to first.  Part 2 coming tomorrow. Enjoy.

Boston College:   Eagles team will look completely different this year as they lose their entire starting lineup as junior guard Reggie Jackson jumped to the NBA early and four seniors (Joe Trapani, Corey Raji, Biko Paris and Josh Southern) graduated.   That leaves BC with….nobody.  This is the first time I’ve looked at an ACC roster before the season and not recognized one player on the team.  Turns out Al Skinner just stopped recruiting, which is why he was fired before last season.  With nine freshmen on the roster, this has to be the least experienced team in ACC history.  And quite possibly could be the worst.  If Steve Donahue manages to win more than 2 games in the ACC, he'll have done a magnificent coaching job this year. 

ACC record: 1-15

Wake Forest: Last year’s team lost more ACC games and more games overall than any team in ACC history.  With heavy losses from graduation, NBA, and off the court problems prior to last year, Wake and coach Jeff Bzedilk were forced to throw unproven freshman and sophomores into the fire and they just weren’t competitive.  There was more turmoil after last season with three more players leaving, notably their best freshman last year JT Terrell’s dismissal for a DUI arrest. Wake will be better with less distractions and a more mature and experienced team.  They have ACC caliber players in Travis McKie at forward and C.J. Harris at shooting guard.  I don’t know if they will climb much higher on the ACC ladder, but based on the handful of games so far, they will be more competitive and successful than last season. 

ACC record: 4-12

Georgia Tech: Big changes abound for the Yellow Jackets from the head coach to the basketball arena to the players. Gone is Paul Hewitt, who only went to the tournament once in the past four seasons. He was an effective recruiter, as he brought in highly touted players like Chris Bosh, Derrick Favors, Thaddeus Young, and Javaris Crittendon, but was unable to keep them, causing constant roster turnover and no cohesion and continuity from year to year.  In is Brian Gregory, who was an assistant for Tom Izzo before coaching Dayton for 8 seasons, but only managed 2 NCAA appearances in his time there. Gone is Alexander Memorial Coliseum, Georgia Tech’s home since 1956.   It will undergo a $45 million renovation and will be renamed Hank McCamish Pavilion. During the renovation, Tech’s home games this season will split between Philips Arena and Gwinnett Arena. Gone is their best player last year Iman Shumpert, who left early for the NBA.  Forward Glen Rice Jr. (13ppg last year) will be asked to step up in scoring and leadership.  Their biggest weakness will be down in the paint as PF Kammeon Holsey is a respectable returning player but they have no depth or ability behind him.  In a year of transition with a new head coach, new system, and expanding roles for returning players, plus the added wrinkle of no real home court, and Tech will struggle to finish better than the bottom four of the ACC. 

ACC record: 5-11

Maryland:  In continuing the theme of transition and change, nothing will be more different than looking towards the Maryland bench this year and not seeing Gary Williams, sweating profusely through his suit and yelling obscenities at his bench at what seemed any time he pleased. Gary retired as the third winningest coach in the ACC behind only behind Coach K and Dean Smith, and that in itself speaks for the quality program Gary led at Maryland.  Maryland hired Mark Turgeon, who was Big 12 Coach of the Year the last two seasons at Texas A&M, and I believe will bring Maryland back to ACC prominence in the coming years.  But it won’t be this year.  Maryland has only eight scholarship players and only three are taller than 6-6, thanks to Jordan Williams inexplicably announcing for the NBA draft and Haukur Palsson leaving to play professionally in Europe.  Sophomore Terrell Stoglin is a great scoring point guard and he along with senior forward Sean Mosley and highly recruited freshman shooting guard Nick Faust will have to shoulder the scoring load as sophomore guard Pe’Shon Howard is out for half the season with a foot injury.  Mark Turgeon would be ecstatic to coach this team to win more than 6 games in the ACC, which could possibly win him another Coach of the Year award, but the future looks bright for Maryland basketball. 

ACC record: 6-10

Clemson: Brad Brownell took advantage of an experienced squad last year led by Demontez Stitt and Jerai Grant and was able to secure an NCAA bid in his first season as head coach and a win in the tournament, something Oliver Purnell could not do with teams more talented than last year’s version.  With those two seniors gone, Brownell will have his work cut off to get back to the tournament.  He returns two reliable guards in Tanner Smith and Andre Young and pair of workers in the post in Milton Jennings and Devin Booker. But they don’t have enough behind these four to repeat last year’s success unless Jennings or Booker takes a huge step up in production inside and become All-ACC caliber.

ACC record: 6-10

Virginia Tech:  Tough year last year as injuries diffused what should have been the best team VT has had since joining the ACC, but again they found themselves on the wrong side of the bubble. This will be another year where Tech and Seth Greenberg struggle to make the NCAA tournament.  VT lost as much talent as anybody in the league, as gone are All-ACC guard Malcolm Delaney, ACC second team forward Jeff Allen, and once again forward JT Thompson after tearing his ACL again in preseason practice.  Respectable talent returns at guard with Dorenzo Hudson and Erick Green and forward with Victor Davila and Jarell Eddie.  Tech's ultimate success or failure this season does ride a lot on three impact freshmen. Robert Brown, Marquis Rankin and Dorian Finney-Smith are the best recruiting class Greenberg has brought in during his tenure.  How fast they can acclimate to the rigors of ACC basketball will determine if VT can escape bubble purgatory.

ACC record: 7-9