I will go on record as being an adamant supporter of
Mark Richt. I can’t explain exactly why. I don’t really care to explain exactly
why. However, I know the scales on this are starting to shift. The losses to
Florida and Georgia Tech last year and the losses to Tennessee and again to
Florida this year have several people outside the program speculating about the
fate of Richt’s tenure in Athens. Every time Georgia loses this speculation
rumbles like an earthquake through my phone. A loss to Kentucky tomorrow would
tip these scales dramatically.
"Yeah, I don't know, Nick. I think a 30for30 about how I stole your shit might be something the people are into."
Auburn
drowned Kentucky in the moonshine of its own reflection.
This game took place in Lexington earlier this week.
Kentucky wore radiant silver helmets, as if football were a game played by
Greek princes against Gorgon sisters. Football, however, is not a game played
against mythic creatures. Instead, football is a game played by college
athletes against other college athletes, and some colleges have better athletes
than others. No shield from Athena can change that. The game featured a lot of
big pass plays, and college athletes making athletic grabs. The game filled a
highlight reel. And, in the end, Kentucky had a chance. But that’s the thing
about Kentucky football—chances always end up in past tense. With 27 seconds
left in the game the question, Ken-tucky
do it, had an answer. A 2-1 start in the conference is now 2-2. Tigers are
much more fierce than Wildcats.
A
matter of cannibalism: Louisiana Tech and Mississippi State.
When the Bulldogs play the Bulldogs, the Bulldogs
will be victorious. When the Bulldogs are victorious, other Bulldogs will not
be. However, once a Bulldog, always a Bulldog. We are all Bulldogs, until we’re
no longer Bulldogs. We will always be Bulldogs. Go Bulldogs!
Ole
Miss visits Memphis.
Um, somehow this game became interesting. In fact, the
game will air on ABC. After all, these teams have only one loss between them.
The mighty Tigers of Memphis are living a dream. The mighty Tigers of Memphis
are 5-0, yet unranked. In some ways, like all things backwoods and southern,
this matchup will feature lots of friends and neighbors and cousins facing off
against one another. The whole affair will reek of incest. If the Rebels win,
then all this intrigue will evaporate like rain on a hot highway. But, if the
Tigers manage the upset, then the name of quarterback Paxton Lynch will fall on
our ears like a torrent.
Alabama
and Texas A&M collide once more.
Right away Texas A&M felt like an SEC school
because of how it played against ‘Bama. Now A&M faces an opportunity to not
only make a name for itself in the conference but to supplant the powers that
be. They come into the game ranked higher and with a better record than
Alabama. This game is about more than this season; this game is about the next
half decade or so.
After all, before the Georgia game, many fans and
analysts doubted the authenticity of this year’s Crimson Tide. Could they be an
aberration on Saban’s year in and year out pursuit of perfection? Now, that
doubt feels like eons ago; the press clippings of fossilized worlds no longer
in existence. Yet such worlds feel remote no longer. Saban’s squad impersonated
dominance in Sanford Stadium. With time, what once was plastic pretense can
become a bedrock identity.
So, what happens if the Aggies prevail at home
today? Saban and his team would then slouch back into the east down two games
to the Aggies and trailing LSU as well. This notion of change is all rather
interesting and, for now, possible.
When
the sun sets on the Gators.
This game could happen twice.
First, the Gators have risen from the Muschamp
ashtray with a fury. And, at 4-0 in the conference, the start is no longer a
surprise. The fast start is not so much an uprising as the status quo of this
football season. Georgia lost Nick Chubb. Tennessee limps along. South Carolina
throws retirement parties. Mizzou’s roar is but a kazoo in the wilderness. And
the Wildcats fainted at the sight of their own reflection. The Gators are it.
Then again, the Gators just suspended starting
quarterback Will Grier for the season, brining Treon Harris back into the
starting fold. An October night in Baton Rouge is probably not the place for
such adjustments to be made. In some ways, the Gators voice seems ready to
crack. While undefeated and appearing dominant the last two weeks, this team
barely edged East Carolina, Kentucky, and Tennessee. The last time Harris
attempted anything of note was in against the Pirates of ECU. Of course,
quarterback play has not necessarily been the reason for the Gators’ renewed
success.
Oh, and the guys at LSU just flat out play.
Missouri
scheduled to trim the hedges.
My dad emailed me earlier in the week: “Georgia’s
season is down the tubes.” Welp, there you have it.
Tired of experts opinions, read on: The Dogs from Mississippi vs. the Cats from Kentucky
Once upon a time, this match-up would've promised a delightfully competitive football game between the pond scum of their respective divisions. However, Mississippi State is no longer a second rate bulldog. In fact, they may be not only the top bulldawg but the top dawg of the conference. Kentucky, however, is still mostly pond scum. To that point, Kentucky is coming off a 41-3 loss at LSU. They'll be at home today, but that just means there will be friends and family nearby to hug them after another beat down.
In this critical week of SEC play, I'm subbing in for Langston, who had to make the noontime kickoff of the ODU game. So, since some games have begun and others are about to start, let's begin talking some football on a day that really does feel like a true October Saturday:
#6 Aggies v. #12 Bulldogs
This game has already begun, with Mississippi State currently up 28 to 10. The Aggies came into Starkville with an undefeated record, and, prior to last week's overtime win against the Razorbacks, their closest game had been a 24 point victory over South Carolina. If the current score against the Bulldogs holds, the Aggies will be at risk of falling behind in the SEC West; after all, their next two games are against Ole Miss and Alabama.
The hiatus is over. School and work have been breaking me down. 15 hours of classes and 40+ work hours has a way of draining you of any drive to do anything productive with your free-time and push you towards sloth-dom. Well, after surviving simultaneous midterms and deadline week at the magazine, I feel like I can breathe again, momentarily. Anyways, lets get back to why we're all here, picks.
Editors Note: This season, on top of the usual SEC picks, we will be picking the best games on the Virginia D-1 slate. We, as in the LCB, all spent our formative years in Virginia. So, we probably should have been doing this all along.
SEC Games of the Week Century
(1) LSU v (2) Bama @ 8:00 on CBS:
I have been avoiding ESPN all week. Not because I want to avoid any negative talk about UT or the Raiders (I do typically avoid any sports news/talk when my teams are suffering), but because I don't want ESPN to overhype this game. It doesn't need it. It's as clear as day, one versus two, the corndoggers versus the bammers. An SEC championship on the line, and a birth in the BCS title game (most likely) on the line.1 Anyways, this is a tough game to nail down. The Tide and the Tigers have the best defenses in college football, and there is a steep drop-off after these two. They both, also, run the ball extremely well. Trent Richardson is better than the man he replaced, a Heisman winner, which is just ridiculous.2 LSU's stable has them ranked as the 30th best rushing team in the country. Which is impressive considering the competition they've faced and the changes at QB throughout the season. The two most important categories, has these two at a draw.
So, where is the edge? And who has it? Does it lie in Bama's home-field advantage? Maybe, but Vegas is only giving them four points. Considering Alabama plays in one of the loudest stadiums in the country, Vegas sees this a draw. As we all know, there is a reason they make so many men weep into their whiskeys on Saturdays in the fall, they're often right. Then how about the QBs, will they tilt the advantage in one way or the other? McCarron has been efficient and relatively mistake-free all season long, and has Marquis Maze to bail him out when he does make mistakes. LSU has a two-headed monster that they can go either way with, Lee as the game manager and Jefferson as the playmaker. If the run is being stuffed, Lee can make the pass downfield. If the passing game isn't working, throw in Jefferson to make the defense keep their eyes in the backfield and simultaneously freeing up receivers to make plays.
How about the coaches? Grass or Debbie cakes? It all depends on what you think is the more efficient management style, dictatorship or democratic. Saban plans every step, play and word spoken. Micromanager or detailed tactician? Miles shows up to the game as if he's playing a round of golf on his day off. Apathetic and lucky or a composed shepherd? Either way you see it, both these men find a way to inspire and lead their teams to wins.
The difference in this game could be any of the factors discussed, but the team that welds these moving parts more effectively will be the victor.3 I'll take the micromanaging dictator and the Crimson Tide. While this style of leadership doesn't bode well on most offices, it works in most college locker rooms and certainly helps keep players focused when most would be distracted by a trip to New Orleans.4*
Notes:
1. It's clearly not a definite since the winner could always lose in Atlanta, forfeiting their spot in the title game. And as Clay Travis points out, if all the pieces fall into place, this could be a preview of the National Title game.
2. Even more ridiculous, Mark Ingram is the lone Heisman winner from Alabama. With all of the great athletes and teams that have played for the Tide over the years, it's shocking they have only had one.
3. Sorry for getting so "pregame show" obvious ("The team who scores more, will win") here. This really was a lazy way to close this post, but it's now 2:49 a.m. and my bed is calling out to me.
4. There is no VA game of the week this time out. But its not due to a lack of great and/or important games. We left the following games off the picks because I felt the LSU/Bama game deserved more depth than I typically provide. JMU visits New Hampshire. They'll need a win here to strengthen their playoff hopes. ODU plays Richmond at home with a chance to clinch their first trip to the playoffs. If they clinch, they'll be the first team to make the FCS playoffs in just their first year of eligibility. And UVA travels to College Park with a chance to clinch their first bowl birth since 2008 and their first under Mike London.
*If you haven't read Harvey's piece on the Cocktail Party yet, you should. It gives you a glimpse of just how much the win over the Gators means to the program and their fans.
There are a lot of interesting and possibly great match-ups this weekend. I wish I could cover them all, but I'm running a little late on time. So, for this week, my picks are going to be slightly abbreviated. And yes, I do know I have all week to write this piece. Time management has always been an issue of mine. Just know that I'm working on it.
Editors Note: This season, on top of the usual SEC picks, we will be
picking the best games on the Virginia D-1 slate. We, as in the LCB, all
spent our formative years in Virginia. So, we probably should have been
doing this all along. SEC Games of the Week (14) Arkansas v (3) Alabama @ 3:30 on CBS:
After a quick perusal on the google machine, it appears that Arkansas has turned into a fashionable upset pick for this game. I would guess it's due to the youth of Alabama's defensive front and the awesomeness of QB Tyler Wilson, which to me is always a funny reason (the youth, not the awesome QB) for a team to be favored. Aren't all of these guys young and inexperienced? Sure, the freshman need to adapt to the speed of play in the SEC and realize they can't just touch a guy to insure a tackle (Fun-da-men-tals kids, WRAP HIM UP!). But that's why each FBS team has so many roster spots, to provide the depth needed to avoid starting a bunch of underclassmen. To be honest, the only teams that can use "youth" and "inexperience" as an excuse are the ones dealing with coaching turnover or a high amount of attrition. Alabama doesn't fit that bill. But it doesn't even matter, I could never pick Arkansas over Bama. Not, at least, with Trent Richardson playing for the Tide. Alabama 31, Arkansas 27.
(2) LSU v (16) WVU @ 8:00 on ABC:
This game, to me at least, holds more intrigue in the stands than it does on the field. Two of the more notoriously rowdy fanbases coming together for a night game in Morgantown. Couldn't these AD's just think of those poor couches for once? LSU 24, WVU 17.
VA Game of the Week (8) James Madison v (16) William & Mary @ 7:00 on PPV:
If you read last week, you would know thatI thought Liberty was the better team. I was clearly wrong as the Dukes overcame the challenge of playing in Lynchburg. What do they get for it? A trip to Williamsburg to play a ranked opponent that plays much better at home than anywhere else.
With lots of rain in the forecast, the weather is likely to be less than ideal.
Add that to the fact that both teams have fantastic defenses and
questions surrounding the quarterback position, and you get the most
important ingredients to an ugly football game. Speaking of quarterbacks, JMU doesn't know which
Justin Thorpe they're going to get, the one who almost blew the game
against woeful CCSU or the one who helped lead them to victory over a
ranked Liberty squad on the road. As for the Tribe, they just handed the reins from Michael Paulus to Michael
Graham. This was a non-decision, as Paulus just couldn't seem to return to his pre-inury form and was hurting more than he was helping. However, if Graham's not the answer they're looking for and they can't find
a way to move the ball with any consistency, it will be a long year in
Williamsburg. Anyways, I like JMU to win, because they have Dae'Quan Scott and W&M doesn't. JMU 17, W&M 14.
We could write a lot of words explaining what happened last night in Dallas, but it would be wasting your time. We could write four thousand words, add footnotes, and invent some frivolous scale of measurement that proclaims how LSU's overcoming the suspension of its starting quarterback is adversely affected by the number of times A Few Good Men is played on cable television. But, in short, a picture from out childhoods sums up Oregon's four turnover performance and LSU's surprising dominance:
Russ brought these compilation videos of Auburn's Nick Fairley to my attention in the comments section of our SEC picks last week. He probably thought watching them might make me feel better after last week's Georgia-Auburn game--they didn't. I still believe that anytime Auburn is undefeated it's a sure sign that there's something amiss with college football, and it may not have anything to do with pay for play scandals.
Now, I'm definitely biased because I'm a Georgia fan, but these plays suggest to me that Nick Fairley is a dirty player and if he's not dirty, he's definitely living on that line. I'm not sure the Georgia offensive linemen should have retaliated against him. It makes it feel like they sunk down to Fairley's level, but I'm not sure what a group of linemen are supposed to do when they've watched a guy not just go after their quarterback but go head hunting on multiple plays.
Is Fairley talented? Extremely. But he's also putting others and himself at risk with the savage manner in which he plays. When a guy like this begins to develop a reputation, almost anything he does will be deemed dirty and the players of other teams will watch him through a lens of "if this guy so much as breathes on my quarterback, I'm coming after him." But it's not just other players that will watch Fairley more closely: it's the refs as well. Because of his play, number ninety is now under a microscope with the Iron Bowl coming up, and one has to think that the SEC can not continue to let him maim quarterbacks in this manner.
In the above video, it's possible that Aaron Murray and Nick Fairley's face masks got tangled together, but because of Fairley's reputation, it isn't difficult to imagine that he's intentionally bearing down on Murray's helmet as a means of taunting. And that's the problem with Fairley's play, it makes everything he does questionable, and while Auburn thoroughly outplayed Georgia in the last three quarters of the South's oldest rivalry last week, Fairley's conduct escalated the hostilities in the game to the point where two of his teammates will now miss the first half of their game against Alabama for throwing punches. Fairley's play is hurting his own team, and this pattern of play goes beyond the Georgia game, as shown by the following play against LSU:
Auburn is currently being investigated for whether or not it paid Heisman Trophy candidate Cam Newton to play at their school, but sometimes being a dirty program is as much about what you do on the field and not just what you do off of it.
(6) Alabama v (10) LSU @ 3:30 on CBS Teach:These teams don't like each other, but what they may both share is a hatred for Auburn. Auburn is currently undefeated and poised to win the SEC West; however, Auburn's whole season now lies in the shadows of how they recruited Cam Newton, which makes this game something more than a battle over Nick Saban's reputation as either a devil or an angel: these two teams are now playing for the right to say, "It should have been us. It would have been us."
UT v (12) LSU @ 3:30 on CBS Langston: If Tennessee loses at Baton Rouge today, that’ll mean in a week’s time when the Dawgs and Vols face off we’ll have the first meeting between the two when both carry losing records since 1906. For that not to happen, the Vols will need to score at least 16 points. I know, I know, 16 isn't really that much. But with LSU's terrific defense and the two terrible QBs in this game, 16 points could be considered an offensive explosion. It probably won't happen since Derek Dooley seems determined to torture all of Tennessee while inflicting us with delusional dreams of Tyler Bray by starting Matt Simms, their inability to get a third-down conversion longer than two yards and the inevitable kicks to "the best when hydrated" Patrick Peterson. I'd love to say UT learns from it's mistakes; moves on past the Matt Simms era, punts the ball out of bounds, and improve on third down; but it still wouldn't fix their issue with depth (they have none). They'll keep it close early, only to pay for their 14-man defensive rotation in the second half. It's going to be a long, painful year. LSU 14, UT 10.
Teach: Tigers fans aren't happy. Volunteers fans aren't happy. It's like they're having a karaoke contest and the only song allowed to be sung is "(I Can't Get No) Satisfaction," with LSU accusing Les Miles of not smoking the same cigarettes as Nick Saban and Tennessee interpreting the song as a euphemism for in the bed impotence, so when these teams meet today, don't be surprised if it goes down like a Rolling Stones show, where Hells Angels perform security by not providing any security at all. In other words, this game promises to turn into a violent affair of trench warfare: broken bottles, cracked ribs, and bloody facemasks, at least that's what Les Miles and his boys hope to have happen.
Sometimes in life the things we hate are the things that get us by, so while LSU fans might clamor for more offense and loathe the ugliness with which their team wins, they might be happier if they just took a little more satisfaction in the grit and the filth it takes to win ugly--and often--saying to hell with how white their shirts can be. LSU wins 23-17.
(7) UF v (1) Bama @ 8:00 on CBS Langston: Florida has a very good defense, probably the second best in the SEC after LSU, and they're expected to use their biggest strength to stack the box tonight to slow down Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson. The key to this being a successful choice is the play of Florida's secondary, if they can cover one-on-one with decent success, Florida wins. But they won't. Bama can run whenever they want, and Julio Jones one-on-one is a highlight reel waiting to happen. Expect it to be closer than the spread (Bama -9), but also expect Bama to take Florida out of title contention early. Alabama 28, Florida 24.
Teach: There's a song that starts "Oh, a storm is threat'ning/ My very life today," and maybe it's what we all should have been singing a few years ago when Urban Meyer took over at Florida and Nick Saban grabbed the reins at Alabama, because more and more the SEC's future looks like a power struggle between these two coaches, their large stashes of talent, and their playbooks. But this war, this conflict, is not just a shot away. This war is not a Cold one. And it's more than a red coal carpet. It's already burning.
The humidity and heat of the South lasts on into October, clinging to the tombstones of the dead like mossy knuckles. The war is here, and conference titles and national championships are in the middle of it. Call rape. Call murder. Somebody's going to die today, and it's possible they come walking out of their grave in two months time just to reenact the destruction of a mad bull that lost its way, like today's game was a historical Civil War battle in need of remembrance, and today, that bull's name is Mark Ingram. Alabama wins 27-21.
Teach: Last week, South Carolina's Marcus Lattimore ran all over, through, and around the Georgia defense for 182 yards, and while his talent sparked feelings of helplessness in the way that only a dynamo can, the inability of Bulldawg defenders to wrap up, when tackling, was also largely to blame. Sadly, this problem has become a bit of a tradition in Athens the last few years, no matter who the defensive coordinator is. In his first major college football game, redshirt freshman Aaron Murray looked more than capable of being a big time quarterback, completing two thirds of his passes, without any interceptions, and maybe if Washaun Ealey hadn't fumbled away a scoring opportunity the rest of the SEC would be forced to take notice. The other problem for the Georgia offense is that they are still without their best player AJ Green and that will not change today, which will make Murray's task of keeping pace with Ryan Mallett and Arkansas' offense more difficult. I believe the game will be close through three quarters and then the Bulldawgs will simply run out of steam or continue to look for the big hit, rather than wrap up. Arkansas wins, in Athens, 28-17, and UGA is doomed, in the SEC East, with an 0-2 start.
Mississippi State v (15) LSU @ 7:00 on ESPNU Teach:What to make of Mississippi St.? Last year, they racked up three conference wins, against Vandy, Kentucky, and rival Ole Miss. They lost to LSU last year 30-26 in one of their more competitive SEC games; all their other conference losses were by double digits, including a 49-24 loss to Auburn. This year, they only lost to the blue and orange Tigers by a field goal. Is it a sign of a stronger team? Could be. They've got a new coach (in his second year), which always causes alumni to poke out their chests with eternal optimism, but some things are greater than the lives of individual men, like Mississippi State's mediocrity: LSU wins 28-14, keeping pace with the rest of the teams in a loaded SEC West.
Clemson v (16) Auburn @ 7:00 on ESPN Teach: How can one take anything baring the label ACC seriously anymore? They're the Blockbuster of college football conferences, rapidly closing down shop, at the hands of Netflix and Redbox upstarts. It is truly pathetic, and I don't see how anyone could buy stock in one of their teams going up against any team from one of the real BCS conferences. Versatile quarterback Cameron Newton, who has thrown for 322 yards and rushed 241 yards, while averaging seven yards a carry, in two games this season will lead the Tigers to victory over the other tigers 21-17.